53% of Murders, 57% of Firearm Murders, 2% of Counties: New Research Maps Where U.S. Killings Happen
Key Takeaways
- Just 2% of U.S. counties accounted for 53% of all murders and 57% of firearm murders in 2025, per the Crime Prevention Research Center.
- In 2025, 1,981 counties recorded no firearm murders at all, and another 453 recorded just one, totaling 78% of U.S. counties.
- The worst 1% of counties, 31 of them, accounted for 40% of murders while holding 20% of the U.S. population.
- Biden carried 30 of the 31 worst counties in 2020, with Oklahoma County being the only exception.
- In Canada and Australia, homicide patterns run opposite to the U.S., with major metro areas not carrying a disproportionate share of killings.
Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
WASHINGTON, DC — Just 2% of U.S. counties accounted for 53% of all murders and 57% of firearm murders in 2025, according to new research from the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC). Those counties hold about 30% of the country’s population.
CPRC published the analysis on Oct. 6. It is the group’s first look at how firearm murders specifically are concentrated, and it finds they cluster even more tightly than murders overall. The worst 2% to 5% of counties carry a share of firearm murders about four percentage points larger than their share of all murders.
The rest of the map looks nothing like that. In 2025, 1,981 counties holding 17% of the population recorded no firearm murders at all. Another 453 recorded just one. Together, that is 78% of U.S. counties. They are home to roughly 26% of Americans and accounted for 4.9% of firearm murders.
CPRC’s count, built on FBI data, puts the 2025 totals at 9,288 firearm murders and 12,768 murders overall. The worst 1% of counties, 31 of them, accounted for 40% of murders with 20% of the population. That is down from 41% in 2024. CPRC says that as the murder rate fell to record lows in 2025, murders dropped proportionately faster in the counties that had the most.
Those 31 counties lean heavily one way. Biden carried 30 of them in 2020. The lone exception, Oklahoma County, went to Trump by 1.1 percentage points. In 2024, Harris carried 25 of the 31, and Trump won the other six by an average of about four points.
CPRC argues the cities inside those counties matter more, because that is where officials make key policing decisions. Leave out places where the city and county are the same, and an average of 74% of the murders in the worst 1% of counties happened in the major city. Those cities hold about 52% of their county’s population.
The cities also vote further left than their counties. Harris carried the major city in all six counties Trump won in 2024. Twenty-six of the 31 cities have Democratic mayors and councils with Democratic majorities or Democratic-leaning control. CPRC found only one clear case of a Republican mayor with a Republican council: Oklahoma City.
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The report also compares the U.S. to Canada and Australia and finds the opposite pattern there. In Canada, the three metro areas with the most homicides, Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver, hold 35.4% of the population but only 24.3% of homicides. In Australia, homicides grow more disproportionate the farther you get from the major cities.
National and statewide gun restrictions apply to every county equally. By CPRC’s count, 78% of those counties recorded zero or one firearm murder in 2025.
Read the original story: 53% of Murders, 57% of Firearm Murders, 2% of Counties: New Research Maps Where U.S. Killings Happen