Q4 2026 FFL Market Forecast: What the Data Says Now
August splits the market in two: adjusted firearms checks up 2.2 percent, NFA checks up 201.6 percent. Here is what the data says about FFL inventory, transfer revenue and the next 90 days.
August splits the market in two: adjusted firearms checks up 2.2 percent, NFA checks up 201.6 percent. Here is what the data says about FFL inventory, transfer revenue and the next 90 days.
ATF Director Robert Cekada says long-awaited guidance covering suppressors, short-barreled rifles and short-barreled shotguns could arrive within weeks. The agency also says FFLs will not be cited for lawful suppressor transfers completed on Form 4473 under the federal injunction.
President Donald Trump has ordered the Justice Department not to appeal the Silencer Shop ruling, leaving a major injunction against key National Firearms Act registration and approval provisions in place for covered plaintiffs, members and customers.
Four FFLs reportedly passed ATF inspections after 4473-only suppressor transfers, August gun sales rose for a seventh straight month, and the Third Circuit revived NSSF's challenge to New Jersey's gun industry liability law.
SilencerCo says qualifying customers in 27 states can purchase new suppressors through Form 4473, but unresolved NFA questions have prompted a warning about taking them across state lines.